{"id":702,"date":"2020-03-16T14:03:56","date_gmt":"2020-03-16T13:03:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/?p=702"},"modified":"2020-03-16T14:31:29","modified_gmt":"2020-03-16T13:31:29","slug":"koronavirus-proc-musime-jednat-hned-grafy-a-informace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/?p=702","title":{"rendered":"Koronavirus: Pro\u010d mus\u00edme jednat hned. Grafy a informace"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"root\">\n<div class=\"a b c\">\n<nav class=\"r s t u v c w x y\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"n p\">\n<div class=\"z ab ac ae af ag ah ai\">\n<div class=\"aj n o ak al\">\n<div class=\"r am w\">\n<div class=\"n o\">p\u0159evzato zde: https:\/\/medium.com\/@krivka.adam\/koronavirus-pro%C4%8D-mus%C3%ADme-jednat-hned-6136d561d955<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<article>\n<section class=\"bx by bz ca ai cb cc n cd\"><\/section>\n<div>\n<div class=\"s u ce cf cg ch\">vy\u0161lo: 2020-03-12<\/div>\n<section class=\"ci cj ck cl cm\">\n<div class=\"n p\">\n<div class=\"z ab ac ae af cn ah ai\">\n<div>\n<div id=\"7f51\" class=\"co cp cq bi cr b cs ct cu cv cw cx cy cz da db dc\">\n<h1 class=\"cr b cs dd cu de cw df cy dg da dh cq\">Koronavirus: Pro\u010d mus\u00edme jednat hned<\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"di\">\n<div class=\"n dj dk dl dm\">\n<div class=\"o n\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@krivka.adam?source=post_page-----6136d561d955----------------------\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"r dn do dp\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/fit\/c\/96\/96\/0*ewyKG4xMiysIkHIS\" alt=\"Adam K\u0159ivka\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"dq ai r\">\n<div class=\"n\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"dr n o ds\">\n<p><span class=\"bh dt du bj dv dw dx dy dz ea cq\"><a class=\"ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba eb bd be bf bg\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@krivka.adam?source=post_page-----6136d561d955----------------------\" rel=\"noopener\">Adam K\u0159ivka<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article>\n<div>\n<section class=\"ci cj ck cl cm\">\n<div class=\"n p\">\n<div class=\"z ab ac ae af cn ah ai\">\n<p id=\"807c\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><em class=\"fu\">Politici, \u0161\u00e9fov\u00e9, \u0159editel\u00e9 a vedouc\u00ed: Co m\u00e1te d\u011blat a kdy?<\/em><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"fv fw fx\">\n<p id=\"0539\" class=\"fg fh cq fu fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">P\u016fvodn\u00ed autor: <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@tomaspueyo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tomas Pueyo<\/a>, <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@tomaspueyo\/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">odkaz<\/a> na origin\u00e1l v angli\u010dtin\u011b<br \/>\nP\u0159elo\u017eil: Adam K\u0159ivka, V\u00edt \u010cern\u00fd, Ond\u0159ej Zabloudil Pechn\u00edk<br \/>\nChyby nebo korekce pos\u00edlejte na: <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"mailto:adam.krivka@skaut.cz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">adam.krivka@skaut.cz<\/a>. Korektury prob\u00edhaj\u00ed.<br \/>\nAktualizov\u00e1no 12. 3. 2020<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p id=\"cc46\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Se v\u0161\u00edm, co se d\u011bje kolem koronaviru, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 se rozhodnout, jak postupovat \u2014 co d\u011blat te\u010f? M\u011bli byste po\u010dkat na v\u00edce informac\u00ed? Ud\u011blat n\u011bco dnes? A co?<\/p>\n<p id=\"3aae\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">T\u00edmto se budu zab\u00fdvat v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku, pomoc\u00ed mnoha graf\u016f, dat, model\u016f a spousty zdroj\u016f:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"\">\n<li id=\"b400\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Kolik p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru bude re\u00e1ln\u011b ve va\u0161em regionu?<\/li>\n<li id=\"ae45\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Co se stane, kdy\u017e tyto p\u0159\u00edpady vyjdou na povrch?<\/li>\n<li id=\"6f44\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Co byste m\u011bli d\u011blat?<\/li>\n<li id=\"c90d\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Kdy?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p id=\"8303\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">A\u017e do\u010dtete tento \u010dl\u00e1nek, tohle je to, co si z n\u011bj odnesete:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Koronavirus se k v\u00e1m bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed rychlost\u00ed: postupn\u011b a pak n\u00e1hle.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Je to ot\u00e1zka dn\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 t\u00fddne nebo dvou.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>A\u017e p\u0159ijde, v\u00e1\u0161 zdravotnick\u00fd syst\u00e9m bude p\u0159ehlcen.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Va\u0161i spoluob\u010dan\u00e9 budou o\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1ni na chodb\u00e1ch.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Vy\u010derpan\u00ed zam\u011bstnanci zdravotnick\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed budou kolabovat. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed zem\u0159ou.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Budou se muset rozhodovat, kter\u00fd pacient dostane kysl\u00edk a kter\u00fd zem\u0159e.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak tomu zabr\u00e1nit, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed odstup. Ne z\u00edtra.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Dnes.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>To znamen\u00e1 udr\u017eet co nejv\u00edce lid\u00ed doma, po\u010d\u00ednaje t\u00edmto okam\u017eikem.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"a69d\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jako politik nebo jak\u00e1koliv osobnost ve v\u016fd\u010d\u00edm postaven\u00ed, m\u00e1te moc a odpov\u011bdnost br\u00e1nit postupu koronaviru.<\/p>\n<p id=\"4ef2\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Mo\u017en\u00e1 te\u010f m\u00e1te obavy: Co kdy\u017e to p\u0159e\u017eenu? Nebudou se mi lid\u00e9 sm\u00e1t? Nebudou na m\u011b na\u0161tvan\u00ed? Nebudu vypadat hloup\u011b? Nebylo by lep\u0161\u00ed po\u010dkat, a\u017e n\u011bco podniknou ostatn\u00ed? Co kdy\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 po\u0161kod\u00edm ekonomiku?<\/p>\n<p id=\"bc91\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ale za 2\u20134 t\u00fddny, a\u017e bude cel\u00fd sv\u011bt zav\u0159en\u00fd doma a kdy n\u011bkolik cenn\u00fdch dn\u016f soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstupu, kter\u00e9 jste zavedli, zachr\u00e1n\u00ed spoustu lidsk\u00fdch \u017eivot\u016f, v\u00e1s ji\u017e lid\u00e9 nebudou kritizovat: budou v\u00e1m d\u011bkovat za u\u010din\u011bn\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00e9ho rozhodnut\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"9426\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tak jo, poj\u010fme na to.<\/p>\n<h1 id=\"59d4\" class=\"gk gl cq bi bh gm cs gn cu go gp gq gr gs gt gu gv\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">1. Kolik p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru bude re\u00e1ln\u011b ve va\u0161em regionu?<\/h1>\n<h2 id=\"4e06\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u0160\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ia r\">\n<div class=\"ht hu s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/1500\/0*P0P_gCkiLdX0U-Qc.png\" width=\"934\" height=\"596\" \/><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 1: Celkov\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"598c\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Celkov\u00fd po\u010det naka\u017een\u00fdch rostl exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b, dokud to \u010c\u00edna nedostala pod kontrolu. Potom v\u0161ak n\u00e1kaza unikla do sv\u011bta a te\u010f je z toho pandemie, kterou nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee zastavit.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ik r\">\n<div class=\"ht hu s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai ie\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/1500\/0*1lXT3Pe1Ikfv0A0-.png\" alt=\"Graf 2: Celkov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru mimo \u010c\u00ednu\" width=\"937\" height=\"562\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 2: Celkov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru mimo \u010c\u00ednu<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"57b0\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Dnes v\u011bt\u0161ina p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f poch\u00e1z\u00ed hlavn\u011b z It\u00e1lie, \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"il r\">\n<div class=\"ht hu s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai ie\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/1500\/0*fH8xqAQdezz9IBcO.png\" alt=\"Graf 3: P\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru po zem\u00edch (krom\u011b \u010c\u00edny)\" width=\"928\" height=\"577\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 3: P\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru po zem\u00edch (krom\u011b \u010c\u00edny)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"d183\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji, It\u00e1lii a \u00cdr\u00e1nu je tolik naka\u017een\u00fdch, \u017ee skoro nejdou vid\u011bt ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b. Zv\u011bt\u0161eme si tedy prav\u00fd doln\u00ed roh grafu.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"im r\">\n<div class=\"ht hu s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai ie\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/1500\/0*tE5cVLmLe2oOVyKu.png\" alt=\"Graf 4: P\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru po zem\u00edch (krom\u011b \u010c\u00edny, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, It\u00e1lie a \u00cdr\u00e1nu)\" width=\"939\" height=\"547\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 4: P\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru po zem\u00edch (krom\u011b \u010c\u00edny, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, It\u00e1lie a \u00cdr\u00e1nu)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"4cdd\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">M\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt mnoho zem\u00ed s exponenci\u00e1ln\u00edm r\u016fstem. V\u011bt\u0161ina z nich jsou z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"in r\">\n<div class=\"ht hu s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai ie\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/1500\/0*R_v85l_jh58AXbxk.png\" alt=\"Graf 5: Denn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f mezi 5. a 6. 3.\" width=\"947\" height=\"601\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 5: Denn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f mezi 5. a 6. 3. \u010cerven\u00fd text: Zem\u011b za touto \u010d\u00e1rou zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed po\u010det sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f ka\u017ed\u00e9 2 dny (Pozn.: 1,4*1,4=1,96)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"b22a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud se budeme dr\u017eet takov\u00e9ho tempa r\u016fstu pouze jeden t\u00fdden, tohle n\u00e1s nemine:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"io r\">\n<div class=\"ht hu s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai ie\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/1500\/0*8WOz_JXYyUZ4zg_z.png\" alt=\"Graf 6: P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru po zem\u00edch (krom\u011b \u010c\u00edny, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, It\u00e1lie a \u00cdr\u00e1nu)\" width=\"954\" height=\"592\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 6: P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru po zem\u00edch (krom\u011b \u010c\u00edny, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, It\u00e1lie a \u00cdr\u00e1nu)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"8c50\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud chcete pochopit, co se stane a jak tomu p\u0159edej\u00edt, mus\u00edte se pod\u00edvat na zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 si t\u00edm ji\u017e pro\u0161ly: \u010c\u00edna, v\u00fdchodn\u00ed st\u00e1ty dot\u010den\u00e9 SARSem 2003 a It\u00e1lie.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"fb14\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u010c\u00edna<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ho\">\n<div class=\"n p\">\n<div class=\"ip iq ir is it iu ae iv af iw ah ai\">\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho iy iz paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca ix\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ja r\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai ie\" role=\"presentation\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/5606\/1*3MgYGsYlo3HFrAgRszrVhA.png\" width=\"948\" height=\"532\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 7: \u010casov\u00e1 osa ud\u00e1lost\u00ed v Hubei<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"n p\">\n<div class=\"z ab ac ae af cn ah ai\">\n<p id=\"63a1\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Toto je jeden z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch graf\u016f.<\/p>\n<p id=\"27b1\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Oran\u017eov\u00e9 sloupky ukazuj\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed denn\u00ed po\u010det nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f v provincii Hubei <em class=\"fu\">(\u010desky Chu-pej, tady ale pro udr\u017een\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho kontextu uv\u00e1d\u00edme Hubei)<\/em>, tj. kolik lid\u00ed bylo ten den diagnostikov\u00e1no jako pozitivn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"eeb3\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u0160ed\u00e9 sloupky ozna\u010duj\u00ed <strong class=\"fi jb\">skute\u010dn\u00fd<\/strong> po\u010det denn\u00edch nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru. \u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed odborn\u00edci je vyvodili tak, \u017ee se ptali pacient\u016f p\u0159i diagn\u00f3ze na to, kdy se u nich za\u010daly projevovat p\u0159\u00edznaky nemoci.<\/p>\n<p id=\"e98f\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tato \u010d\u00edsla tehdy nebyla zn\u00e1ma. M\u016f\u017eeme je vyvodit pouze p\u0159i zp\u011btn\u00e9m pohledu: \u00fa\u0159ady nev\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee se u \u010dlov\u011bka projevuj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edznaky nemoci, v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee \u010dlov\u011bk \u0161el k doktorovi a byl diagnostikov\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<p id=\"7d97\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee oran\u017eov\u00e9 sloupky ukazuj\u00ed, co \u00fa\u0159ady v\u011bd\u011bly, a \u0161ed\u00e9 co se re\u00e1ln\u011b d\u011blo.<\/p>\n<p id=\"bf46\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">21. ledna po\u010det nov\u00fdch diagnostikovan\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f (oran\u017eov\u00e1) prudce roste: je asi 100 nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. Ve skute\u010dnosti bylo ten den ale nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f 1500; a rostly exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b. \u00da\u0159ady to v\u0161ak nev\u011bd\u011bly. Jedin\u00e9, co v\u011bd\u011bly bylo to, \u017ee ten den p\u0159ibylo 100 nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 choroby.<\/p>\n<p id=\"aafb\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Dva dny potom, \u00fa\u0159ady uzav\u0159ely m\u011bsto Wuhan <em class=\"fu\">(\u010desky Wu-chan, podobn\u00e1 situace jako s Hubei)<\/em>. Po\u010det nov\u00fdch diagnostikovan\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f denn\u011b v ten moment byl asi 400. Zapamatujte si toto \u010d\u00edslo: rozhodli se zav\u0159\u00edt m\u011bsto s pouze 400 nov\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edpady denn\u011b. Ve skute\u010dnosti ale ten den bylo ve Wuhanu asi 2500 nov\u00fdch naka\u017een\u00fdch, ale to nev\u011bd\u011bli.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3b06\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Dal\u0161\u00edch 15 m\u011bst v provincii Hubei se uzav\u0159elo n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed den.<\/p>\n<p id=\"7bdf\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Do 23. ledna, kdy Wuhan vydal z\u00e1kaz ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho pohybu, m\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee \u0161ed\u00fd graf roste exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b. Skute\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady rostly prudce ka\u017ed\u00fd den. Hned jak se Wuhan \u201dvypnul\u201d, n\u00e1r\u016fst se zpomalil. 24. ledna, kdy se dal\u0161\u00edch 15 m\u011bst uzav\u0159elo, n\u00e1r\u016fst nov\u00fdch skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f zvolnil a\u017e zastavil. Maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f byl dosa\u017een dva dny pot\u00e9 a od t\u00e9 doby se pouze sni\u017eoval.<\/p>\n<p id=\"c4b7\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u0161imn\u011bte si, \u017ee oran\u017eov\u00e9 (potvrzen\u00e9) p\u0159\u00edpady st\u00e1le rostly exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b: cel\u00fdch dal\u0161\u00edch 12 dn\u00ed to vypadalo, \u017ee se nemoc st\u00e1le prudce \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed. Ale nebylo tomu tak. Lid\u00e9 jen m\u011bli \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed symptomy a chodili v\u00edce k doktorovi. Syst\u00e9m diagn\u00f3zy byl tak\u00e9 \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"235b\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tento koncept potvrzen\u00fdch a skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd. Ponechme si ho v pam\u011bti na pozd\u011bji.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3dd1\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Zbytek \u010c\u00edny byl dob\u0159e \u0159\u00edzen centr\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dou, tak\u017ee podnikli okam\u017eit\u00e1 a drastick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed. Toto je v\u00fdsledek:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"jc r\">\n<div class=\"ht hu s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai ie\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/1500\/0*Bgc51S8tZSY0wyvz.png\" alt=\"Graf 8: P\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru (\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 regiony krom\u011b Hubei vs. It\u00e1lie, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea)\" width=\"956\" height=\"591\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 8: P\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru (\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 regiony krom\u011b Hubei vs. It\u00e1lie, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"7ca7\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ploch\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry jsou \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 oblasti s p\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 m\u011bla potenci\u00e1l nasko\u010dit na exponenci\u00e1lu, ale d\u00edky opat\u0159en\u00edm zaveden\u00fdm na konci ledna dok\u00e1zaly v\u0161echny zastavit virus je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e se stihl roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"471e\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u00fdchodn\u00ed st\u00e1ty<\/h2>\n<p id=\"9c8d\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Koronavirus se v Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji rapidn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il, ale pro\u010d ne v Japonsku, Tchaj-wanu, Singapuru, Thajsku nebo Hong Kongu?<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ji r\">\n<div class=\"ht hu s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai ie\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/1500\/0*zXcdD7Xt102UxZ9Y.png\" alt=\"Graf 9: Celkov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru mimo \u010c\u00ednu (zem\u011b s &gt;50 p\u0159\u00edpady ke dni 7. 3. 2020)\" width=\"948\" height=\"566\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 9: Celkov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady koronaviru mimo \u010c\u00ednu (zem\u011b s &gt;50 p\u0159\u00edpady ke dni 7. 3. 2020)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"4944\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u0161echny zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 zem\u011b byly zasa\u017een\u00e9 SARSem v roce 2003; a v\u0161echny se pou\u010dily. V\u011bd\u011bly, jak naka\u017eliv\u00fd a smrteln\u00fd takov\u00fd virus m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt, a tak braly situaci velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Z toho d\u016fvodu nevypadaj\u00ed jejich k\u0159ivky, p\u0159esto\u017ee za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed r\u016fst mnohem d\u0159\u00edv, jako exponenci\u00e1ly.<\/p>\n<p id=\"2f5b\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Zat\u00edm jsme sly\u0161eli jen o prudce se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00edm koronaviru, o vl\u00e1d\u00e1ch uv\u011bdomuj\u00edc\u00edch si tuto hrozbu a o jej\u00edm \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9mu potla\u010den\u00ed. V jin\u00fdch zem\u00edch je to v\u0161ak \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh.<\/p>\n<p id=\"5570\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">P\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e o nich \u0159eknu n\u011bco v\u00edc, mal\u00e1 pozn\u00e1mka o Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji: tato zem\u011b je v\u00fdjimka. Koronavirus byl zastaven ji\u017e p\u0159i prvn\u00edch 30 p\u0159\u00edpadech. Pacient \u010d\u00edslo 31 byl v\u0161ak super-\u0161\u00ed\u0159i\u010d, kter\u00fd nakazil tis\u00edce dal\u0161\u00edch lid\u00ed. Proto\u017ee virus se stihne roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it d\u0159\u00edv, ne\u017e hostitel poc\u00edt\u00ed p\u0159\u00edznaky, choroba byla utr\u017een\u00e1 z \u0159et\u011bzu d\u0159\u00edv, ne\u017e si \u00fa\u0159ady probl\u00e9m uv\u011bdomily. Nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed n\u00e1sledk\u016fm tohoto jedin\u00e9ho naka\u017een\u00e9ho. Jejich snahy zamezit \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v\u0161ak nesou ovoce. Zat\u00edmco takov\u00e1 It\u00e1lie ji\u017e p\u0159edb\u011bhla Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu v po\u010dtu p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, \u00cdr\u00e1n ji p\u0159edb\u011bhne z\u00edtra (ke dni 10. 3. 2020).<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"d339\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">St\u00e1t Washington<\/h2>\n<p id=\"6ab0\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">U\u017e jste vid\u011bli, jak vypad\u00e1 \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed a jak \u0161patn\u00e9 jsou p\u0159edpov\u011bdi v pouh\u00e9m t\u00fddenn\u00edm horizontu. Te\u010f si p\u0159edstavte, \u017ee neprob\u011bhnou opat\u0159en\u00ed k zamezen\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jako ve Wuhanu nebo v ostatn\u00ed asijsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch. M\u00e1te tu kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed epidemii.<\/p>\n<p id=\"f76a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pod\u00edvejme se na p\u00e1r p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f: st\u00e1t Washington, San Francisco a okol\u00ed, Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e a Madrid.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"n p ao\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"jj\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/proxy\/0*DSyCPsgf0ypWExTd.png\" alt=\"Graf 10: P\u0159\u00edpady ve st\u00e1tu Washington a smrtnost\" width=\"960\" height=\"558\" \/><\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 10: P\u0159\u00edpady ve st\u00e1tu Washington a smrtnost<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"2b12\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">St\u00e1t Washington je americk\u00fd Wuhan. Po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f roste exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b. Pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f je na 140.<\/p>\n<p id=\"6f2d\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">N\u011bco zaj\u00edmav\u00e9ho se v\u0161ak stalo na za\u010d\u00e1tku. Smrtnost <em class=\"fu\">(= procento lid\u00ed naka\u017een\u00fdch koronavirem, kte\u0159\u00ed zem\u0159ou; \u00famrtnost je pod\u00edl v cel\u00e9 populaci)<\/em> byla neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b vysok\u00e1. V jeden okam\u017eik byly ve st\u00e1t\u011b 3 p\u0159\u00edpady a 1 mrtv\u00fd.<\/p>\n<p id=\"ed5f\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Z jin\u00fdch m\u00edst v\u00edme, \u017ee smrtnost koronaviru se pohybuje mezi 0,5% a 5% (v\u00edce o tom pozd\u011bji). Jak by mohla b\u00fdt smrtnost 33%?<\/p>\n<p id=\"6d02\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ukazuje se, \u017ee virus se tajn\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159il t\u00fddny a t\u00fddny. Nebyly pouze 3 p\u0159\u00edpady. Pouze \u00fa\u0159ady v\u011bd\u011bly o t\u0159ech; a jeden z nich byl po smrti, proto\u017ee \u010d\u00edm z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stav, t\u00edm pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bji je \u010dlov\u011bk testov\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<p id=\"e4f5\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Je to trochu jako oran\u017eov\u00e9 a \u0161ed\u00e9 sloupky v \u010c\u00edn\u011b: \u00fa\u0159ady znaly oran\u017eov\u00e9 sloupky (ofici\u00e1ln\u011b potvrzen\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady) a ty vypadaly dob\u0159e, jen 3! Ale skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f bylo ve skute\u010dnosti stovky, mo\u017en\u00e1 tis\u00edce.<\/p>\n<p id=\"38f0\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tohle je probl\u00e9m: zn\u00e1te pouze potvrzen\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady, ale ne ty skute\u010dn\u00e9. Pot\u0159ebujete v\u0161ak zn\u00e1t ty skute\u010dn\u00e9. Jak je m\u016f\u017eete odhadnout? Existuje p\u00e1r zp\u016fsob\u016f. Vytvo\u0159il jsem <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/u\/1\/d\/17YyCmjb2Z2QwMiRRwAb7W0vQoEAiL9Co0ARsl03dSlw\/copy?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">model<\/a>, se kter\u00fdm si m\u016f\u017eete zkusit pohr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3cea\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Prvn\u00ed zp\u016fsob: pomoc\u00ed po\u010dtu \u00famrt\u00ed. Pokud je ve va\u0161\u00ed oblasti alespo\u0148 jeden mrtv\u00fd, m\u016f\u017eete toto \u010d\u00edslo pou\u017e\u00edt k odhadu skute\u010dn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. V\u00edme p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b, jak\u00e1 doba uplyne pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b od naka\u017een\u00ed po \u00famrt\u00ed \u2014 <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/midas-network\/COVID-19\/tree\/master\/parameter_estimates\/2019_novel_coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">17,3 dne<\/a>. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ten \u010dlov\u011bk, co zem\u0159el 29. 2. ve st\u00e1tu Washington, se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nakazil n\u011bkdy kolem 12. 2.<\/p>\n<p id=\"87e0\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">D\u00e1le zn\u00e1te smrtnost. Pro tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pou\u017eijeme 1% (budeme se o tom bavit podrobn\u011bji pozd\u011bji). M\u016f\u017eeme tedy \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee kolem 12. 2. bylo v t\u00e9to oblasti naka\u017een\u00fdch ji\u017e p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 100 lid\u00ed (ze kter\u00fdch pouze jeden skon\u010dil po smrti o 17,3 dn\u00ed pozd\u011bji).<\/p>\n<p id=\"f31c\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Te\u010f pou\u017eijme pr\u016fm\u011brnou dobu zdvojen\u00ed pro koronavirus (\u010das, ve kter\u00e9m se zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f). Je to <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/midas-network\/COVID-19\/tree\/master\/parameter_estimates\/2019_novel_coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">6,2<\/a>. Z toho plyne, \u017ee v t\u011bch 17 dnech mezi naka\u017een\u00edm a \u00famrt\u00edm se po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f stihl zosmin\u00e1sobit (8~=2^(17\/6)). To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee pokud nediagnostikujete v\u0161echny p\u0159\u00edpady, jedno \u00famrt\u00ed dnes odpov\u00edd\u00e1 celkov\u00fdm 800 naka\u017een\u00fdch.<\/p>\n<p id=\"ae8b\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Washington m\u00e1 dnes 22 \u00famrt\u00ed. Na\u0161im rychl\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010dtem dojdeme k p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 16 000 skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru dnes. <em class=\"fu\">Stejn\u011b jako je potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f v It\u00e1lii a \u00cdr\u00e1nu dohromady!<\/em><\/p>\n<p id=\"52e4\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud se na to pod\u00edv\u00e1me podrobn\u011bji, zjist\u00edme, \u017ee 19 z t\u011bchto \u00famrt\u00ed bylo z jednoho shluku, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee znamenat, \u017ee se virus ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159il tak daleko. Pokud budeme br\u00e1t t\u011bchto 19 \u00famrt\u00ed jako 1, celkov\u00fd po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed ve Washingtonu je 4. Po nov\u00e9m v\u00fdpo\u010dtu dostaneme po\u0159\u00e1d p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3000 aktu\u00e1ln\u011b naka\u017een\u00fdch.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3068\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tento postup od <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/u\/685823cf116a?source=post_page-----f4d3d9cd99ca----------------------\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Trevora Bedforda<\/a> se d\u00edv\u00e1 na viry samotn\u00e9 a jejich mutace, za \u00fa\u010delem odhadnut\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho po\u010dtu p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr\">\n<div class=\"vo r\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"s t u hv ai\" title=\"Trevor Bedford on Twitter\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.embedly.com\/widgets\/media.html?type=text%2Fhtml&amp;key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&amp;schema=twitter&amp;url=https%3A\/\/twitter.com\/trvrb\/status\/1237394739143438338&amp;image=https%3A\/\/i.embed.ly\/1\/image%3Furl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fpbs.twimg.com%252Fprofile_images%252F532254561386262528%252FgHX_F_KC_400x400.png%26key%3Da19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07\" width=\"680\" height=\"217\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"auto\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p id=\"0f36\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Z\u00e1v\u011br je, \u017ee ve st\u00e1tu Washington je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b kolem 1100 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru.<\/p>\n<p id=\"781c\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z t\u011bchto postup\u016f nen\u00ed dokonal\u00fd, ale v\u0161echny ukazuj\u00ed k jednomu a tomu sam\u00e9mu: nezn\u00e1me skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, ale v\u00edme, \u017ee je mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e po\u010det potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. Nejsou to stovky. Jsou to tis\u00edce, mo\u017en\u00e1 v\u00edc.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"75c9\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">San Francisco a okol\u00ed<\/h2>\n<p id=\"2fea\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">A\u017e do 8. 3., sanfrancisk\u00fd z\u00e1liv nem\u011bl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u00famrt\u00ed. To \u010dinilo odhadov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010dtu skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9. Potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f bylo 86. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty americk\u00e9 v\u0161ak t\u011b\u017ece nest\u00edhaj\u00ed testov\u00e1n\u00ed, proto\u017ee nemaj\u00ed testovac\u00ed soupravy. Velmoc se rozhodla vytvo\u0159it si vlastn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ale <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.propublica.org\/article\/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">nefungovaly<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"2ccd\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Toto jsou po\u010dty test\u016f proveden\u00e9 v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch do 3. 3.:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"jl r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*v1b-fjRRwC9h401L.png\" width=\"735\" height=\"301\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tabulka: Zem\u011b; Proveden\u00e9 testy; Test na milion ob\u010dan\u016f; Procento pozitivn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"3743\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Turecko, bez jedin\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edpadu koronaviru, m\u011blo 10kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed testovac\u00ed kapacitu na obyvatele ne\u017e USA. Dne\u0161n\u00ed situace nen\u00ed o moc lep\u0161\u00ed, Amerika zat\u00edm stihla otestovat jen <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/health\/health-news\/u-s-has-tested-more-8-500-specimens-coronavirus-doesn-n1154156\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">4000<\/a> lid\u00ed.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"jm r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*E25W5D40knm6ITk5.png\" width=\"730\" height=\"405\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 10b: Testy koronaviru na milion obyvatel v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"26f8\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">M\u016f\u017eeme tady vyu\u017e\u00edt pom\u011br mezi potvrzen\u00fdmi a skute\u010dn\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edpady. Jak na n\u011bj ale p\u0159ij\u00edt? V San Franciscu a okol\u00ed byli otestov\u00e1ni v\u0161ichni, kdo cestovali nebo byli v kontaktu s cestovatelem, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se p\u0159i\u0161lo na v\u0161echny p\u0159\u00edpady spojen\u00e9 s cestov\u00e1n\u00edm, ale nebyly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 informace o \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v komunit\u00e1ch. Pokud p\u0159ijdeme na vztah mezi komunitn\u00edm a cestovn\u00edm \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm, m\u016f\u017eeme odhadnout, kolik m\u00e1me skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f nyn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"2e67\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pod\u00edval jsem se na pom\u011br Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 skv\u011bl\u00e1 data. Kdy\u017e m\u011bli 86 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, bylo 86% z nich naka\u017eeno komunitn\u00edm \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm (86 a 86% je n\u00e1hoda).<\/p>\n<p id=\"968a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pomoc\u00ed tohoto \u010d\u00edsla m\u016f\u017eeme vypo\u010d\u00edtat po\u010det skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f v San Franciscu a okol\u00ed: pokud je tam nyn\u00ed 86 potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, pohybuje se po\u010det skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b kolem 600.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"e3e3\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Francie a Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e<\/h2>\n<p id=\"b5a4\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Francie hl\u00e1s\u00ed 1400 potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f a 30 \u00famrt\u00ed. Pomoc\u00ed dvou v\u00fd\u0161e pou\u017eit\u00fdch metod dost\u00e1v\u00e1me rozp\u011bt\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fdch po\u010dt\u016f p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f: <strong class=\"fi jb\">24 000 a\u017e 140 000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"jn\">\n<div id=\"6557\" class=\"jo jp jq bi cr b jr js jt ju jv jw ft\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\n<p class=\"cr b jx jy bm\">Skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru ve Francii dnes je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mezi 24 000 a 140 000.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p id=\"72ab\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jz fl ka fn kb fp kc fr kd ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Rad\u0161i to je\u0161t\u011b zopakuji: po\u010det skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f ve Francii je nejsp\u00ed\u0161 10 a\u017e 100kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e je ofici\u00e1ln\u011b hl\u00e1\u0161eno.<\/p>\n<p id=\"5a8f\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Nev\u011b\u0159\u00edte mi? Pod\u00edvejte se znovu na graf v\u00fdvoje Wuhanu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ho\">\n<div class=\"n p\">\n<div class=\"ip iq ir is it iu ae iv af iw ah ai\">\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho iy iz paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca ke\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kf r\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/2879\/1*V7NRujW7kP7GTZA1Jcq_ZQ.png\" width=\"941\" height=\"548\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"n p\">\n<div class=\"z ab ac ae af cn ah ai\">\n<p id=\"9cb8\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Kdy\u017e na sebe postav\u00edte v\u0161echny oran\u017eov\u00e9 sloupky do 22. 1., dostanete <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/CSSEGISandData\/COVID-19\/tree\/master\/csse_covid_19_data\/csse_covid_19_time_series\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">444<\/a> p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. Te\u010f si se\u010dt\u011bte \u0161ed\u00e9 sloupky. Ty \u010din\u00ed asi 12 000 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. Tak\u017ee kdy\u017e si ve Wuhanu mysleli, \u017ee maj\u00ed 444 naka\u017een\u00fdch, m\u011bli doopravdy 27kr\u00e1t v\u00edc. Pokud si Francie mysl\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1 1 400 naka\u017een\u00fdch, m\u016f\u017ee jich m\u00edt ve skute\u010dnosti klidn\u011b des\u00edtky tis\u00edc.<\/p>\n<p id=\"ab8c\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Stejn\u00e1 matematika plat\u00ed i pro Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e. S cca 30 p\u0159\u00edpady uvnit\u0159 m\u011bsta, skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f bude nejsp\u00ed\u0161 v \u0159\u00e1du stovek, mo\u017en\u00e1 tis\u00edc\u016f. 300 potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f v oblasti Ile-de-France m\u016f\u017ee znamenat, \u017ee po\u010det skute\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f ji\u017e m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159esahovat des\u00edtky tis\u00edc.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"4697\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u0160pan\u011blsko a Madrid<\/h2>\n<p id=\"bc92\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">Situace ve \u0160pan\u011blsku<\/a> je velmi podobn\u00e1 jako ve Francii (1 200 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f vs. 1 400 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f a ob\u011b zem\u011b zaznamenaly 30 \u00famrt\u00ed). Tud\u00ed\u017e plat\u00ed stejn\u00e1 pravidla: \u0160pan\u011blsko m\u00e1 ji\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 tis\u00edc p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f.<\/p>\n<p id=\"7e35\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V oblasti Comunidad de Madrid se nach\u00e1z\u00ed 600 potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru a do\u0161lo k 17 \u00famrt\u00edm. Skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f je tedy nejsp\u00ed\u0161 mezi 10 a 60 tis\u00edci.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a189\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud se d\u00edv\u00e1te na tato \u010d\u00edsla a \u0159\u00edk\u00e1te si: \u201c<em class=\"fu\">Nemo\u017en\u00e9, tohle nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pravda<\/em>\u201d, vzpome\u0148te si na tohle: s t\u00edmto po\u010dtem naka\u017een\u00fdch byl ve Wuhanu u\u017e d\u00e1vno z\u00e1kaz vych\u00e1zen\u00ed.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"jn\">\n<div id=\"4049\" class=\"jo jp jq bi cr b jr js jt ju jv jw ft\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\n<p class=\"cr b jx jy bm\">S takov\u00fd po\u010dtem potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f jako v USA, \u0160pan\u011blsku, Francii, \u00cdr\u00e1nu, N\u011bmecku, Japonsku nebo \u0160v\u00fdcarsku, byl Wuhan ji\u017e d\u00e1vno uzav\u0159en.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p id=\"f614\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jz fl ka fn kb fp kc fr kd ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">A pokud nam\u00edt\u00e1te: \u201c<em class=\"fu\">Hubei byla jenom jedna oblast<\/em>\u201d, jemn\u011b v\u00e1m p\u0159ipomenu, \u017ee v n\u00ed \u017eije t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 60 milion\u016f lid\u00ed, v\u00edce ne\u017e ve \u0160pan\u011blsku a p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejn\u011b jako ve Francii.<\/p>\n<h1 id=\"820d\" class=\"gk gl cq bi bh gm cs gn cu go gp gq gr gs gt gu gv\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">2. Co se stane, kdy\u017e tyto p\u0159\u00edpady vyjdou na povrch?<\/h1>\n<p id=\"4d12\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tak\u017ee, koronavirus je tady. Schov\u00e1v\u00e1 se a exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b roste.<\/p>\n<p id=\"58eb\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Co se stane v na\u0161ich zem\u00edch, a\u017e choroba doraz\u00ed? To se d\u00e1 lehce zjistit, proto\u017ee u\u017e existuje n\u011bkolik m\u00edst, kde se nemoc \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed. Nejlep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklady jsou Hubei a It\u00e1lie.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"44b4\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Smrtnost<\/h2>\n<p id=\"04a1\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Sv\u011btov\u00e1 zdravotnick\u00e1 organizace (WHO) uv\u00e1d\u00ed 3,4 % jako smrtnost koronaviru. Tohle \u010d\u00edslo si vy\u017eaduje trochu kontextu, poj\u010fme si jej vysv\u011btlit.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kg r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*iDx8i4p_biPnWuxq.png\" width=\"737\" height=\"495\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 12: Smrtnost: \u00famrt\u00ed \/ celkov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"8a72\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u010c\u00edsla se hodn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1t od st\u00e1tu: od 0,6 % v Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji po 4,4 % v \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Tak co se d\u011bje? Abychom na to p\u0159i\u0161li, pou\u017eijeme jeden trik.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3481\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Smrtnost lze spo\u010d\u00edtat dv\u011bma zp\u016fsoby: \u201c\u00famrt\u00ed d\u011bleno celkov\u00fd po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f\u201d nebo \u201c\u00famrt\u00ed d\u011bleno po\u010det uzav\u0159en\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f\u201d. V\u00fdsledkem prvn\u00edho zp\u016fsobu v\u00fdpo\u010dtu bude spodn\u00ed odhad, proto\u017ee mnoho neuzav\u0159en\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f je\u0161t\u011b vy\u00fast\u00ed v \u00famrt\u00ed. V\u00fdsledek druh\u00e9ho zp\u016fsobu v\u00fdpo\u010dtu bude naopak nadhodnocen\u00fd, proto\u017ee p\u0159\u00edpady kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed smrt\u00ed jsou v\u011bt\u0161inou uzav\u0159eny rychleji ne\u017e zotaven\u00ed se.<\/p>\n<p id=\"6286\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pod\u00edval jsem se na v\u00fdvoj obou hodnot v \u010dase. Tato \u010d\u00edsla k sob\u011b konverguj\u00ed (p\u0159ibli\u017euj\u00ed se), a\u017e se nakonec \u00fapln\u011b rovnaj\u00ed (v\u0161echny p\u0159\u00edpady jsou uzav\u0159eny). M\u016f\u017eete tedy st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed trendy prom\u00edtnout do budoucnosti a u\u010dinit odhad kone\u010dn\u00e9 hodnoty smrtnosti.<\/p>\n<p id=\"9576\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Co m\u016f\u017eeme z dostupn\u00fdch dat vy\u010d\u00edst? Smrtnost v \u010c\u00edn\u011b je te\u010f mezi 3,6 a 6,1 %. Pokud prom\u00edtnete jejich v\u00fdvoj do budoucnosti, uvid\u00edte, \u017ee kone\u010dn\u00e1 hodnota konverguje n\u011bkde mezi 3,8 a 4 %. To je dvakr\u00e1t v\u00edc ne\u017e aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed odhady a 30kr\u00e1t hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e standardn\u00ed ch\u0159ipka.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a2f4\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jedn\u00e1 se v\u0161ak o data ze dvou \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00fdch realit: Hubei a zbytku \u010c\u00edny.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kh r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*Vb-EXpl34nnHG8Id.png\" width=\"723\" height=\"435\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 13: Smrtnost v provincii Hubei, \u010c\u00edna<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"1977\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Smrtnost v Hubei pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b skon\u010d\u00ed na 4,8 %, zat\u00edmco ve zbytku \u010c\u00edny sp\u00ed\u0161e na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 0,9 %.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ki r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*wAqX2-49bgOol4fT.png\" width=\"728\" height=\"430\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 14: Smrtnost v \u010c\u00edn\u011b, vyjma Hubei<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"c494\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Zanesl jsem na graf tak\u00e9 data pro \u00cdr\u00e1n, It\u00e1lii a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu, jedin\u00e9 zem\u011b s dostate\u010dn\u00fdm po\u010dtem \u00famrt\u00ed, aby byl tento n\u00e1hled v\u016fbec u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fd.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kj r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*sWNWsNtdivPbNvVg.png\" width=\"718\" height=\"445\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 15: Prom\u00edtnut\u00ed smrtnosti koronaviru v \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kk r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*FWSIrWvGiuBdKLBG.png\" width=\"736\" height=\"476\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 16: Prom\u00edtnut\u00ed smrtnosti koronaviru v It\u00e1lii<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kl r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*-3V6VkE8vbjIeP3X.png\" width=\"726\" height=\"486\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 17: Prom\u00edtnut\u00ed smrtnosti koronaviru v Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"6ece\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pom\u011br \u00famrt\u00ed ku celkov\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edpad\u016fm v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a It\u00e1lii se p\u0159ibli\u017euje k rozmez\u00ed 3 a\u017e 4 %. M\u016fj odhad je, \u017ee tam tak\u00e9 skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"09bf\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea je velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad, proto\u017ee tyto dva \u00fadaje jsou \u00fapln\u011b odd\u011blen\u00e9: \u201c\u00famrt\u00ed d\u011bleno celkov\u00fd po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f\u201d \u010din\u00ed pouze 0,6 %, zat\u00edmco \u201c\u00famrt\u00ed d\u011bleno po\u010det uzav\u0159en\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f\u201d \u010din\u00ed monstr\u00f3zn\u00edch 48 %. M\u016fj pohled je ten, \u017ee tato zem\u011b je pouze extr\u00e9mn\u011b opatrn\u00e1: testuj\u00ed v\u0161echny (s tolika neuzav\u0159en\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edpady se smrtnost zmen\u0161uje) a neuzav\u0159en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady nech\u00e1vaj\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e9 po del\u0161\u00ed dobu (jenom kdy\u017e pacient zem\u0159e, uzav\u0159ou p\u0159\u00edpad rychleji). Co je relevantn\u00ed je to, \u017ee pom\u011br \u00famrt\u00ed ku celkov\u00e9mu po\u010dtu p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f se od za\u010d\u00e1tku pohyboval kolem 0,5 %, co\u017e zna\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee by tam i mohl z\u016fstat.<\/p>\n<p id=\"c379\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Posledn\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad je zaoce\u00e1nsk\u00e1 lo\u010f Diamond Princess: s 706 p\u0159\u00edpady, 6 \u00famrt\u00edmi a 100 zotaven\u00fdmi se smrtnost pohybuje mezi 1 a 6,5 %.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fa7d\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tohle z toho v\u0161eho m\u016f\u017eeme vyvodit:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"\">\n<li id=\"6248\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 jsou p\u0159ipraven\u00e9, budou m\u00edt smrtnost od 0,5 (Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea) do 0,9 % (\u010c\u00edna bez Hubei).<\/li>\n<li id=\"906d\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"fi jb\"><em class=\"fu\">Zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 budou p\u0159ehlcen\u00e9, dos\u00e1hnou sp\u00ed\u0161e a\u017e k 3 a\u017e 5 % smrtnosti.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p id=\"9e3f\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy: zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 budou konat rychle, mohou sn\u00ed\u017eit po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed a\u017e 10kr\u00e1t. A to se pouze bav\u00edme o smrtnosti. Rychl\u00e9 \u010diny tak\u00e9 sni\u017euj\u00ed celkov\u00fd po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, co\u017e z rozhodnut\u00ed o opat\u0159en\u00edch d\u011bl\u00e1 \u00fapln\u011b jasnou v\u011bc.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"jn\">\n<div id=\"e91e\" class=\"jo jp jq bi cr b jr js jt ju jv jw ft\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\n<p class=\"cr b jx jy bm\">Zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 konaj\u00ed rychle, mohou sn\u00ed\u017eit po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed a\u017e 10kr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p id=\"3035\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jz fl ka fn kb fp kc fr kd ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">No a co takov\u00e1 zem\u011b pot\u0159ebuje, aby se p\u0159ipravila?<\/p>\n<h1 id=\"3b36\" class=\"gk gl cq bi bh gm cs gn cu go gp gq gr gs gt gu gv\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jak\u00fd bude tlak na syst\u00e9m<\/h1>\n<p id=\"1259\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f vy\u017eaduje hospitalizaci, 5 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f si \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 JIPku (jednotka intenzivn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de) a asi 1 % pot\u0159ebuje velmi intenzivn\u00ed l\u00e9\u010dbu pomoc\u00ed specializovan\u00fdch plicn\u00edch ventil\u00e1tor\u016f nebo ECMO (<a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Extracorporeal_membrane_oxygenation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">extra-corporeal oxygenation<\/a> = mimot\u011bln\u00ed okysli\u010den\u00ed).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"km r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*N1uqbPssP--kvNLU.png\" width=\"657\" height=\"657\" \/><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u011bt\u0161ina n\u00e1kaz je m\u00edrn\u00e1. Sloupce: m\u00edrn\u00e1 (jako ch\u0159ipka, z\u016fsta\u0148te doma), z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 (hospitalizace), kritick\u00e9 (intezivn\u00ed l\u00e9\u010dba)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kn r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*IctYVQGsh3zhB2Tt.png\" width=\"717\" height=\"419\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 18: Slide z webin\u00e1\u0159e Americk\u00e9 nemocni\u010dn\u00ed asociace, vykl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed nejlep\u0161\u00ed odhady dopadu koronaviru na americk\u00fd zdravotn\u00ed syst\u00e9m v roce 2020<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"8502\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Probl\u00e9m je, \u017ee pom\u016fcky jako jsou plicn\u00ed ventil\u00e1tory a ECMO se nedaj\u00ed jednodu\u0161e vyrobit ani koupit. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r lety bylo v cel\u00fdch USA jen 250 ECMO p\u0159\u00edstroj\u016f.<\/p>\n<p id=\"c79f\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud najednou m\u00e1te 100 000 lid\u00ed s n\u00e1kazou, mnoz\u00ed z nich budou cht\u00edt b\u00fdt otestov\u00e1ni, 20 000 z nich bude vy\u017eadovat hospitalizaci, 5 000 bude pot\u0159ebovat JIPku a 1 000 bude pot\u0159ebovat p\u0159\u00edstroje, kter\u00fdch dnes prost\u011b nem\u00e1me dostatek. A to je pouze 100 000 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f.<\/p>\n<p id=\"78ca\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">A to ani nebereme v \u00favahu ot\u00e1zky jako jsou ochrann\u00e9 masky. Zem\u011b jako USA m\u00e1 pouze 1 % po\u010dtu masek, kter\u00e9 by pot\u0159ebovala, aby pokryla ve\u0161ker\u00e9 pot\u0159eby sv\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f zdravotnick\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed (12 milion\u016f N95 masek a 30 milion\u016f chirurgick\u00fdch vs. 3,5 miliardy, kter\u00e9 jsou re\u00e1ln\u011b pot\u0159eba). Pokud se vyskytne mnoho p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f z\u00e1rove\u0148, <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/03\/04\/hhs-clarifies-us-has-about-1percent-of-face-masks-needed-for-full-blown-pandemic.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">bude dostatek masek pouze na dva t\u00fddny<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"daac\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Zem\u011b jako Japonsko, Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea, Hong Kong, Singapur a tak\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 provincie mimo Hubei byly p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 a poskytly pacient\u016fm l\u00e9\u010dbu, kterou pot\u0159ebovali.<\/p>\n<p id=\"c8f2\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Z\u00e1padn\u00ed se v\u0161ak ub\u00edraj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 cestou Hubei nebo It\u00e1lie. Tak co se d\u011bje?<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"18e7\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jak vypad\u00e1 zahlcen\u00fd syst\u00e9m<\/h2>\n<p id=\"bd89\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">P\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy, kter\u00e9 se staly v Hubei a v It\u00e1lii, se za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed sob\u011b navz\u00e1jem nebezpe\u010dn\u011b podobat. V Hubei byly postaveny dv\u011b nemocnice v 10 dnech, p\u0159esto byl syst\u00e9m kompletn\u011b p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een.<\/p>\n<p id=\"e43c\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoWhale\/status\/1220121606313275392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.embedly.com%2Fwidgets%2Fmedia.html%3Ftype%3Dtext%252Fhtml%26key%3Da19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07%26schema%3Dtwitter%26url%3Dhttps%253A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fcryptowhale%2Fstatus%2F1220360086364643329%26image%3Dhttps%253A%2F%2Fi.embed.ly%2F1%2Fimage%253Furl%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fpbs.twimg.com%25252Fext_tw_video_thumb%25252F1220360049400279040%25252Fpu%25252Fimg%25252F-Hujwvf1u1xE3csl.jpg%2526key%253Da19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoWhale\/status\/1220121606313275392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.embedly.com%2Fwidgets%2Fmedia.html%3Ftype%3Dtext%252Fhtml%26key%3Da19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07%26schema%3Dtwitter%26url%3Dhttps%253A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fcryptowhale%2Fstatus%2F1220360086364643329%26image%3Dhttps%253A%2F%2Fi.embed.ly%2F1%2Fimage%253Furl%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fpbs.twimg.com%25252Fext_tw_video_thumb%25252F1220360049400279040%25252Fpu%25252Fimg%25252F-Hujwvf1u1xE3csl.jpg%2526key%253Da19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"6b2e\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ob\u011b zem\u011b si st\u011b\u017eovaly, \u017ee pacienti zaplavili jejich nemocnice. Musela jim b\u00fdt poskytnuta pomoc mimo hlavn\u00ed prostory: v chodb\u00e1ch, v \u010dek\u00e1rn\u00e1ch\u2026<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr\">\n<div class=\"vp r\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"s t u hv ai\" title=\"Jason Van Schoor on Twitter\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.embedly.com\/widgets\/media.html?type=text%2Fhtml&amp;key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&amp;schema=twitter&amp;url=https%3A\/\/twitter.com\/jasonvanschoor\/status\/1237142891077697538&amp;image=https%3A\/\/i.embed.ly\/1\/image%3Furl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fpbs.twimg.com%252Fprofile_images%252F1042371825207058432%252FjkjgBOPQ_400x400.jpg%26key%3Da19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07\" width=\"680\" height=\"262\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"auto\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\">Siln\u011b doporu\u010duji toto kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 Twitterov\u00e9 vl\u00e1kno. Vykresluje pom\u011brn\u011b mizern\u00fd obraz dne\u0161n\u00ed It\u00e1lie.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"8c20\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/bergamo.corriere.it\/notizie\/cronaca\/20_marzo_07\/coronavirus-bergamo-medico-humanitas-facebook-situazione-drammatica-altro-che-normale-influenza-4fdf6866-6088-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">https:\/\/bergamo.corriere.it\/notizie\/cronaca\/20_marzo_07\/coronavirus-bergamo-medico-humanitas-facebook-situazione-drammatica-altro-che-normale-influenza-4fdf6866-6088-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"181d\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pracovn\u00edci zdravotnick\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed tr\u00e1v\u00ed hodiny v jednom kusu ochrann\u00e9ho oble\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00fdch je prost\u011b m\u00e1lo. Nemohou pak dlouhou dobu opustit infikovanou oblast. Co se s nimi d\u011bje? Sesypou se. Dehydrovan\u00ed a vy\u010derpan\u00ed. Sm\u011bny u\u017e d\u00e1vno neexistuj\u00ed. Lid\u00e9 v d\u016fchodu jsou hn\u00e1ni zp\u00e1tky do slu\u017eby. Lid\u00e9 bez o\u0161et\u0159ovatelsk\u00e9ho vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed jsou narychlo \u0161kolen\u00ed a pracuj\u00ed na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch pozic\u00edch. V\u0161ichni jsou v pozoru a na telefonu, po\u0159\u00e1d.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ko r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*9Rue-5cX-3hZRI_g\" width=\"730\" height=\"739\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/photo.php?fbid=10216801035206313&amp;set=a.4873666287617&amp;type=3&amp;theater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">Francesca Mangiatordi<\/a>, italsk\u00e1 sestra, kter\u00e1 se zhroutila uprost\u0159ed v\u00e1lky s koronavirem<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"9db7\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tedy, do t\u00e9 doby, ne\u017e onemocn\u00ed. To se d\u011bje \u010dasto, proto\u017ee jsou v neust\u00e1l\u00e9m kontaktu s virem bez dostate\u010dn\u00e9 ochrany. Jakmile onemocn\u00ed, mus\u00ed na 14 dn\u00ed do karant\u00e9ny a b\u011bhem t\u00e9to doby nemohou pom\u00e1hat. Nejlep\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost: dva t\u00fddny v h\u00e1ji. Nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost: zem\u0159ou.<\/p>\n<p id=\"55cd\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Nejhor\u0161\u00ed to je na JIPk\u00e1ch, kde pacienti mus\u00ed sd\u00edlet ventil\u00e1tory a ECMO, co\u017e je vlastn\u011b technicky nemo\u017en\u00e9, tak\u017ee mus\u00ed o tom, kdo bude l\u00e9\u010den, rozhodovat pracovn\u00edci nemocnice. Kdo bude \u017e\u00edt, kdo zem\u0159e.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fa18\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brusselstimes.com\/all-news\/belgium-all-news\/health\/99412\/coronavirus-we-must-choose-who-to-treat-says-italian-doctor-covid-19-christian-salaroli\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.brusselstimes.com\/all-news\/belgium-all-news\/health\/99412\/coronavirus-we-must-choose-who-to-treat-says-italian-doctor-covid-19-christian-salaroli\/<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"fv fw fx\">\n<p id=\"bb23\" class=\"fg fh cq fu fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u201cPo n\u011bkolika dnech jsme se museli za\u010d\u00edt rozhodovat. [\u2026] Ne ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee dostat d\u00fdchac\u00ed trubici. Rozhoduje se podle v\u011bku a aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho zdrav\u00ed.\u201d \u2014 <em class=\"bi\">Christain Salaroli, italsk\u00fd l\u00e9ka\u0159<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca kp\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kq r\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/743\/0*LQeKepbf6bicKngv.png\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Zdravotn\u00ed pracovn\u00edci s ochrann\u00fdm oble\u010den\u00edm se staraj\u00ed o lidi naka\u017een\u00e9 nov\u00fdm koronavirem na jednotce intenzivn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de v nemocnici ve Wuhanu v \u010c\u00edn\u011b dne 6. \u00fanora. (China Daily\/Reuters), zdroj: <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/2020\/03\/07\/how-doctors-treat-sickest-coronavirus-patients\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">Washington Post<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"84a6\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tohle v\u0161echno t\u00e1hne smrtnost syst\u00e9mu ke 4 % m\u00edsto 0,5 %. Pokud chcete, aby va\u0161e m\u011bsto nebo st\u00e1t aspirovaly na 4 %, nem\u011b\u0148te dnes v\u016fbec nic.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"bz ca kr\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ik r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/525\/0*fV0Go91tsz7SNY7K\" width=\"503\" height=\"302\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky ukazuj\u00ed h\u0159bitov Behesht Masoumeh v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m m\u011bst\u011b Qom. Fotografie: \u00a92020 Maxar Technologies. <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/12\/coronavirus-iran-mass-graves-qom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">The Guardian<\/a> a <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"http:\/\/The New York Times\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">The New York Times<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h1 id=\"1f96\" class=\"gk gl cq bi bh gm cs gn cu go gp gq gr gs gt gu gv\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"ax\">3. Co byste m\u011bli d\u011blat?<\/strong><\/h1>\n<h2 id=\"d3f5\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Vyrovnejte k\u0159ivku<\/h2>\n<p id=\"e3fc\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">U\u017e je to pandemie. Nezbav\u00edme se j\u00ed. M\u016f\u017eeme v\u0161ak sn\u00ed\u017eit jej\u00ed dopad.<\/p>\n<p id=\"b154\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">N\u011bkter\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohou j\u00edt p\u0159\u00edkladem. Nejl\u00e9pe je na tom Tchaj-wan, kter\u00fd se i p\u0159es \u00fazk\u00e9 spojen\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou m\u016f\u017ee dnes chlubit s m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 50 infikovan\u00fdmi. Tento ned\u00e1vn\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek popisuje v\u0161echna opat\u0159en\u00ed k zamezen\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 Taiwan velmi brzy zavedl.<\/p>\n<p id=\"91c6\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2762689\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2762689<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"9610\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Taiwan to zv\u00e1dl a virus zkrotil, ale v\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed postr\u00e1d\u00e1 odborn\u00e9 znalosti a tak viru podl\u00e9h\u00e1. Te\u010f u\u017e proto mus\u00ed hr\u00e1t jinou hru: zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed. Mus\u00ed co nejv\u00edce sn\u00ed\u017eit \u0161kody, kter\u00e9 tento virus m\u016f\u017ee nap\u00e1chat.<\/p>\n<p id=\"d428\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u010c\u00edm v\u00edce sn\u00ed\u017e\u00edme po\u010det infekc\u00ed, t\u00edm l\u00e9pe bude n\u00e1\u0161 zdravotn\u00ed syst\u00e9m zvl\u00e1dat, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed smrtnost. Kdy\u017e tohle prodlou\u017e\u00edme v \u010dase, dos\u00e1hneme bodu, ve kter\u00e9 bude mo\u017en\u00e9 zbytek populace nao\u010dkovat, \u010d\u00edm\u017e \u00fapln\u011b eliminujeme risk koronaviru. Na\u0161im c\u00edlem tedy nen\u00ed zbavit se p\u0159enositel\u016f koronaviru, n\u00fdbr\u017e pozdr\u017eet je.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"bz ca ks\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kt r\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/503\/0*ph9iR5BBa2CYrS_8.gif\" width=\"655\" height=\"552\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Obr\u00e1zek: Pro\u010d je tak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 jednat brzo ohledn\u011b COVID-19<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"5a24\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"fi jb\">\u2014<br \/>\nK obr\u00e1zku:<br \/>\n<\/strong><em class=\"fu\">Na ose x je zobrazen \u010das, na ose y po\u010det lid\u00ed pot\u0159ebuj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e9ka\u0159skou pomoc.<br \/>\nLegenda (odshora dol\u016f):<br \/>\n&#8211; \u0161patn\u011b o\u0161et\u0159en\u00ed pacienti (vysok\u00e1 smrtnost)<br \/>\n&#8211; dob\u0159e o\u0161et\u0159en\u00ed pacienti (n\u00edzk\u00e1 smrtnost)<br \/>\n&#8211; p\u0159\u00edpady bez opat\u0159en\u00ed<br \/>\n&#8211; p\u0159\u00edpady se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm<br \/>\n&#8211; o\u0161et\u0159ovac\u00ed kapacita bez opat\u0159en\u00ed<br \/>\n&#8211; o\u0161et\u0159ovac\u00ed kapacita se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm<br \/>\n<\/em><strong class=\"fi jb\"><em class=\"fu\">\u2014<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"40fc\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u010c\u00edm d\u00e1le budeme moct odkl\u00e1dat nov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady, t\u00edm l\u00e9pe bude moct zdravotn\u00ed syst\u00e9m fungovat, t\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed bude smrtnost a t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed bude pod\u00edl populace, kter\u00fd bude m\u00edt \u0161anci z\u00edskat vakc\u00ednu p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se v\u016fbec infikuje.<\/p>\n<p id=\"d31a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jak ale vyrovn\u00e1me k\u0159ivku?<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"92c1\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed odstup<\/h2>\n<p id=\"954e\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Existuje jedna velmi jednoduch\u00e1 v\u011bc, kterou m\u016f\u017eeme aplikovat a kter\u00e1 funguje: soci\u00e1ln\u00ed odstup.<\/p>\n<p id=\"5d23\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Kdy\u017e se vr\u00e1t\u00edte k grafu Wuhanu, vzpomenete si, \u017ee jakmile byl vyhl\u00e1\u0161en z\u00e1kaz vych\u00e1zen\u00ed, po\u010dty p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f rychle spadly. To je proto, \u017ee lid\u00e9 se spolu nesch\u00e1zeli, tak\u017ee se virus ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159il.<\/p>\n<p id=\"8f7b\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u011bdci se aktu\u00e1ln\u011b shoduj\u00ed na tom, \u017ee virus m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u0161\u00ed\u0159en u\u017e ze vzd\u00e1lenosti dvou metr\u016f, pokud n\u011bkdo zaka\u0161le. Jinak kapi\u010dky ka\u0161le spadnou na zem a nenakaz\u00ed v\u00e1s.<\/p>\n<p id=\"d130\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Nejhor\u0161\u00ed je tak n\u00e1kaza p\u0159es povrchy: virus toti\u017e p\u0159e\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 na r\u016fzn\u00fdch povr\u0161\u00edch hodiny nebo i dny. Pokud bychom brali, \u017ee se chov\u00e1 jako ch\u0159ipka, mohl by vydr\u017eet a\u017e t\u00fddny na \u017eeleze, keramice a plastu. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v\u011bci jako kliky dve\u0159\u00ed, stoly, tla\u010d\u00edtka ve v\u00fdtahu mohou \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159it n\u00e1kazu.<\/p>\n<p id=\"b5ae\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, kter\u00fd doopravdy zamez\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed odstup: udr\u017eet lidi doma jak nejv\u00edc to jde, dokud nemoc nep\u0159ejde.<\/p>\n<p id=\"611b\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tohle se u\u017e v minulosti uk\u00e1zalo jako efektivn\u00ed, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b p\u0159i pandemii ch\u0159ipky v roce 1918.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"b92e\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Lekce z pandemie ch\u0159ipky v roce 1918<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ku r\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*JHq301YiOLWIOsJl.png\" width=\"719\" height=\"394\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 19: \u00damrtnost p\u0159i pandemii ch\u0159ipky v roce 1918 v m\u011bstech s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstupu<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"9e57\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">M\u016f\u017eete vid\u011bt, \u017ee Filadelfia zaspala a m\u011bla obrovsk\u00fd vrchol v \u00famrtnosti. Porovnejte to s byst\u0159ej\u0161\u00edm St. Louis.<\/p>\n<p id=\"b45a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Te\u010f se pod\u00edvejme na Denver, kter\u00fd zavedl opat\u0159en\u00ed a pak je zase uvolnil. Vrcholy \u00famrtnosti byly podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed dva, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ten druh\u00fd byl dokonce vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ten prvn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kv r\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*6Q5WRD24Xm8Dix-o.png\" width=\"728\" height=\"505\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 20: P\u0159ebytn\u00e1 \u00famrtnost v Denveru b\u011bhem pandemie ch\u0159ipky v roce 1918<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"b225\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud to zobecn\u00edme, zjist\u00edme n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kw r\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*Q8CwFQoifS3C92ul.png\" width=\"732\" height=\"533\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 21: Celkov\u00e1 p\u0159ebytn\u00e1 \u00famrtnost na z\u00e1pal plic a ch\u0159ipku podle doby reakce zdravotn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"81ad\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tento graf ukazuje, kolik p\u0159i pandemii ch\u0159ipky v roce 1918 zem\u0159elo nav\u00edc lid\u00ed ve m\u011bstech podle toho, jak rychle byla zavedena opat\u0159en\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad m\u011bsto jako St. Louis podniklo kroky 6 dn\u016f p\u0159ed Pittsburgem a m\u011blo proto asi jen polovinu po\u010dtu \u00famrt\u00ed na ob\u010dana. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b, jedn\u00e1n\u00ed 20 dn\u016f p\u0159edem zmen\u0161\u00ed \u00famrtnost na p\u016flku.<\/p>\n<p id=\"8d27\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">It\u00e1lie si tohle kone\u010dn\u011b uv\u011bdomila. Nejprve uzav\u0159eli Lombardii v ned\u011bli a hned v pond\u011bl\u00ed celou zemi. Uv\u011bdomili si pln\u00fd rozsah jejich chyb.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a033\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Doufejme, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dnech uvid\u00edme slibn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Bude to v\u0161ak trvat jeden a\u017e dva t\u00fddny. Pamatujte na graf Wuhanu: mezi uzav\u0159en\u00edm m\u011bsta a momentem, kdy potvrzen\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady (oran\u017eov\u00e1) za\u010dly klesat, bylo 12denn\u00ed zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"3f09\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jak mohou politikov\u00e9 p\u0159isp\u011bt k soci\u00e1ln\u00edmu odstupu?<\/h2>\n<p id=\"e666\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ot\u00e1zka, kterou si dnes ka\u017ed\u00fd politik klade nen\u00ed, jestli v\u016fbec n\u011bco d\u011blat, n\u00fdbr\u017e jak\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed zav\u00e9st.<\/p>\n<p id=\"f1fa\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Je n\u011bkolik stup\u0148\u016f zach\u00e1zen\u00ed s epidemi\u00ed, po\u010d\u00ednaje p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed a kon\u010de vyhuben\u00edm. Na v\u011bt\u0161inu krok\u016f u\u017e je v\u0161ak dnes p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b. S t\u00edmto po\u010dtem p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed politik\u016fm u\u017e pouze dv\u011b mo\u017enosti: zamezen\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed a zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3a1b\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"fi jb\">Zamezen\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"c6fc\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Zamezen\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed znamen\u00e1 identifikovat, kontrolovat a izolovat v\u0161echny p\u0159\u00edpady. Singapuru, Hongkongu, Japonsku nebo Tchaj-wanu se to da\u0159\u00ed: velmi rychle omezuj\u00ed vstup do zem\u011b, identifikuj\u00ed nemocn\u00e9 a okam\u017eit\u011b je izoluj\u00ed; pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ochrann\u00e9 pom\u016fcky k ochran\u011b sv\u00fdch zdravotnick\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f, sleduj\u00ed v\u0161echny jejich kontakty, d\u00e1vaj\u00ed je do karant\u00e9ny\u2026 Tohle funguje velmi dob\u0159e, kdy\u017e jste p\u0159ipraveni a jedn\u00e1te brzy, a nemus\u00edte ani moc brzdit svou ekonomiku, aby to fungovalo.<\/p>\n<p id=\"dccf\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ji\u017e jsem vyzdvihoval <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2762689\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">tchajwansk\u00fd postup<\/a>. Ale \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd bych m\u011bl taky. Dimenze, do kter\u00fdch \u0161li, aby zamezen\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed dos\u00e1hli, jsou ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed. Pro ilustraci: m\u011bli a\u017e <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">1800 p\u011bti\u010dlenn\u00fdch t\u00fdm\u016f<\/a>, kter\u00e9 sledovaly ka\u017edou jednu infikovanou osobu, v\u0161echny osoby, s nimi\u017e se setkala, a v\u0161echny osoby, se kter\u00fdmi se setkaly tyto osoby, na\u010de\u017e byla do karant\u00e9ny um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e1 cel\u00e1 skupina. Takto dok\u00e1zali virus zadr\u017eet v zemi s miliardou obyvatel.<\/p>\n<p id=\"5021\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tohle z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b neud\u011blaly. A te\u010f u\u017e je na to p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed, \u017ee <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/donald-trump\/trump-make-prime-time-address-coronavirus-wednesday-night-n1155941\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">v\u011bt\u0161ina cest z Evropy byla zak\u00e1z\u00e1na<\/a>, je opat\u0159en\u00ed v moment\u011b, kdy USA m\u00e1 asi 3kr\u00e1t v\u00edce naka\u017een\u00fdch ne\u017e provincie Hubei, kdy\u017e na\u0159\u00eddila uzav\u0159en\u00ed, a tato propast roste exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b. Jak m\u016f\u017eeme v\u011bd\u011bt, \u017ee d\u011bl\u00e1me dost? M\u016f\u017eeme se pod\u00edvat nap\u0159\u00edklad na z\u00e1kaz pohybu v m\u011bst\u011b Wuhan.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"kx r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone \" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*9uF3Pw6cufBfUfjH.png\" width=\"739\" height=\"265\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 21.b: Zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed v \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed koronaviru v \u010c\u00edn\u011b podle z\u00e1kazu pohybu, <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2020\/03\/05\/science.aba9757\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">odkaz na zdroj<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"6647\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tento graf zn\u00e1zor\u0148uje dopad z\u00e1kazu pohybu ve Wuhan na zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed epidemie. Velikosti bublin ozna\u010duj\u00ed po\u010det nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f denn\u011b. Vrchn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1dek ilustruje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi, dal\u0161\u00ed dva \u0159\u00e1dky pak sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s 40% a 90% eliminac\u00ed pohybu. Tento <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2020\/03\/05\/science.aba9757\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">model byl vytvo\u0159en epidemology<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"1dd9\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud nevid\u00edte moc velk\u00fd rozd\u00edl, vid\u00edte spr\u00e1vn\u011b. Jen t\u011b\u017eko lze vid\u011bt jak\u00fdkoliv rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdvoji epidemie.<\/p>\n<p id=\"95a6\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u011bdci odhaduj\u00ed, \u017ee celkov\u011b Wuhansk\u00fd z\u00e1kaz pohybu <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2020\/03\/05\/science.aba9757\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">opozdil n\u00e1kazu v \u010c\u00edn\u011b pouze o 3 a\u017e 5 dn\u016f<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ky r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*wbAF0VBj8C7EYiwV.png\" alt=\"Graf 21.c: Zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed koronaviru v \u010c\u00edn\u011b podle omezen\u00ed pohybu a poklesu rychlosti p\u0159enosu\" width=\"733\" height=\"397\" \/><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 21.c: Zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed koronaviru v \u010c\u00edn\u011b podle omezen\u00ed pohybu a poklesu rychlosti p\u0159enosu<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"7ecf\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Horn\u00ed blok je stejn\u00fd jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm grafu. Dal\u0161\u00ed dva bloky zn\u00e1zor\u0148uj\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00ed rychlost p\u0159enosu. Pokud se rychlost p\u0159enosu, d\u00edky soci\u00e1ln\u00edmu odstupu, sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed o 25 %, dopady n\u00e1kazy se rozm\u011bln\u00ed a vrchol se opozd\u00ed o cel\u00fdch 14 t\u00fddn\u016f. P\u0159i 50% rychlosti p\u0159enosu u\u017e nelze vid\u011bt n\u00e1stup epidemie ani v r\u00e1mci jednoho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"f139\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Z\u00e1kaz cestov\u00e1n\u00ed do Evropy vydan\u00fd americkou vl\u00e1dou je krok spr\u00e1vn\u00fdm sm\u011brem: dalo n\u00e1m to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u00e1r hodin, mo\u017en\u00e1 den \u010di dva. V\u00edc ne. Prost\u011b to nen\u00ed dost. Je to zamezen\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed kdy\u017e to, co pot\u0159ebujeme, je zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed dopad\u016f.<\/p>\n<p id=\"ee77\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jakmile v populaci p\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00ed stovky nebo tis\u00edce p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, br\u00e1nit dal\u0161\u00edm naka\u017een\u00fdm v p\u0159\u00edchodu, sledovat st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed a izolovat jejich kontakty u\u017e nesta\u010d\u00ed. N\u00e1sleduje tedy f\u00e1ze zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed dopad\u016f.<\/p>\n<p id=\"2133\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"fi jb\">Zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed dopad\u016f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"5753\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed dopad\u016f vy\u017eaduje siln\u00fd soci\u00e1ln\u00ed odstup. Lid\u00e9 se mus\u00ed p\u0159estat v\u00eddat tak, aby <em class=\"fu\">rychlost p\u0159enosu<\/em> (R) klesla z R = 2\u20133, kter\u00fdch virus dosahuje bez opat\u0159en\u00ed, pod hodnotu R = 1, co\u017e snad nakonec povede k jeho \u00fapln\u00e9mu vymizen\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a7fc\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tato opat\u0159en\u00ed vy\u017eaduj\u00ed zav\u0159en\u00ed firem, obchod\u016f, hromadn\u00e9 dopravy, \u0161kol\u2026 \u010c\u00edm hor\u0161\u00ed situace, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed odstup je pot\u0159eba. \u010c\u00edm d\u0159\u00edv zavedete tato tvrd\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, t\u00edm krat\u0161\u00ed dobu je budete muset udr\u017eovat, t\u00edm sn\u00e1ze identifikujete vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1kazy a t\u00edm m\u00e9n\u011b lid\u00ed se infikuje.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a855\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">To je to, co muselo ud\u011blat m\u011bsto Wuhan. To je to, co byla It\u00e1lie donucena akceptovat. Proto\u017ee kdy\u017e za\u010dne virus roztahovat ramena, jedin\u00e9, co infikovan\u00e9 oblasti zm\u016f\u017eou, je zamezit okam\u017eit\u011b jak\u00e9mukoliv \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed d\u00e1l.<\/p>\n<p id=\"be31\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">To je to, co s tis\u00edci potvrzen\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edpady \u2014 a desetitis\u00edci prav\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edpady \u2014 mus\u00ed st\u00e1ty jako \u00cdr\u00e1n, Francie, \u0160pan\u011blsko, N\u011bmecko, \u0160v\u00fdcarsko nebo USA ud\u011blat.<\/p>\n<p id=\"79ff\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ale ony to ned\u011blaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p id=\"ead2\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">N\u011bkter\u00e9 firmy na\u0159\u00eddily home office, co\u017e je skv\u011bl\u00e9.<br \/>\nN\u011bkter\u00e9 hromadn\u00e9 akce jsou ru\u0161eny.<br \/>\nN\u011bkter\u00e9 dot\u010den\u00e9 oblasti se uzav\u00edraj\u00ed do karant\u00e9ny.<\/p>\n<p id=\"f6dd\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u0161echna tato opat\u0159en\u00ed zpomal\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed viru. Ale to dost na to, aby se rychlost \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed, tohle \u010d\u00edslo R, dostalo z 2,5 na 2,2 nebo na 2,0. Mus\u00edme jej zatla\u010dit a\u017e pod 1 na dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouho dobu, abychom virus kompletn\u011b p\u0159emohli. A pokud ani tohle nezm\u016f\u017eeme, mus\u00edme se k t\u00e9 jedni\u010dce alespo\u0148 co nejv\u00edc p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit na jak nejd\u00e9le to jde, abychom vyrovnali k\u0159ivku.<\/p>\n<p id=\"d6dd\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ot\u00e1zkou se tedy st\u00e1v\u00e1: Jak\u00e9 jsou kompromisy, kter\u00e9 budeme muset ud\u011blat, abychom sn\u00ed\u017eili R? Tohle je seznam v\u011bc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1m p\u0159edlo\u017eila It\u00e1lie:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"\">\n<li id=\"f349\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee vstoupit do uzav\u0159en\u00e9 oblasti ani ji opustit, pokud nem\u00e1 urgentn\u00ed rodinn\u00e9 nebo pracovn\u00ed d\u016fvody.<\/li>\n<li id=\"d1ed\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pohyb v t\u011bch oblastech by m\u011bl b\u00fdt takt\u00e9\u017e omezen, pokud k n\u011bmu nejsou urgentn\u00ed rodinn\u00e9 nebo pracovn\u00ed d\u016fvody, kter\u00e9 nemohou b\u00fdt odlo\u017eeny.<\/li>\n<li id=\"eee1\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Lidem s p\u0159\u00edznaky (d\u00fdchac\u00ed probl\u00e9my a hore\u010dka) je \u201cv\u00fdrazn\u011b doporu\u010deno\u201d z\u016fst\u00e1vat doma.<\/li>\n<li id=\"0345\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Dovolen\u00e1 pro zdravotn\u00ed pracovn\u00edky je do\u010dasn\u011b zru\u0161ena.<\/li>\n<li id=\"7cf4\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Uzav\u0159en\u00ed v\u0161ech vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00edch instituc\u00ed (\u0161koly, univerzity\u2026), t\u011blocvi\u010den, muze\u00ed, ly\u017ea\u0159sk\u00fdch st\u0159edisek, kulturn\u00edch a spole\u010densk\u00fdch center, plaveck\u00fdch baz\u00e9n\u016f a divadel.<\/li>\n<li id=\"14c3\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Bary a restaurace maj\u00ed omezenou otev\u00edrac\u00ed dobu mezi 6:00 a 18:00 a mus\u00ed zaru\u010dit alespo\u0148 metrovou vzd\u00e1lenost mezi lidmi.<\/li>\n<li id=\"b336\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u0161echny hospody a kluby se mus\u00ed zav\u0159\u00edt.<\/li>\n<li id=\"c93c\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u0161echny komer\u010dn\u00ed aktivity mus\u00ed dodr\u017eovat alespo\u0148 metrovou vzd\u00e1lenost mezi z\u00e1kazn\u00edky. Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed toto nedok\u00e1\u017eou za\u0159\u00eddit, mus\u00ed zav\u0159\u00edt. Kostely mohou z\u016fstat otev\u0159en\u00e9, pokud dodr\u017e\u00ed toto pravidlo.<\/li>\n<li id=\"4f97\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Rodinn\u00e9 a p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy v nemocnic\u00edch mus\u00ed b\u00fdt omezeny.<\/li>\n<li id=\"10f4\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pracovn\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed mus\u00ed b\u00fdt odlo\u017eena. Je doporu\u010dena pr\u00e1ce z domu.<\/li>\n<li id=\"41b3\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V\u0161echny sportovn\u00ed ud\u00e1losti a sout\u011b\u017ee, ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 \u010di soukrom\u00e9, mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zru\u0161eny. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti se mohou d\u00edt za zav\u0159en\u00fdmi dve\u0159mi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p id=\"bc0a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Dva dny posl\u00e9ze k tomu je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159idali: \u201cNo, ve skute\u010dnosti mus\u00edte zav\u0159\u00edt \u00fapln\u011b v\u0161echny podniky, kter\u00e9 nejsou st\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed. Tak\u017ee te\u010f kon\u010d\u00edme v\u0161echny komer\u010dn\u00ed aktivity, kancel\u00e1\u0159e, kav\u00e1rny a obchody. Pouze doprava, l\u00e9k\u00e1rny a potraviny m\u016f\u017eou z\u016fstat otev\u0159en\u00e9.\u201d<\/p>\n<p id=\"6c1c\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jedn\u00edm ze sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f je postupn\u00e9 zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed. To d\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u0161ak viru cenn\u00fd \u010das k roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed. Pokud si chcete b\u00fdt jisti, ud\u011blejte to po Wuhansku.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"20d2\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jak mohou firemn\u00ed mana\u017ee\u0159i p\u0159isp\u011bt k soci\u00e1ln\u00edmu odstup?<\/h2>\n<p id=\"2f01\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud jste firemn\u00ed mana\u017eer a chcete v\u011bd\u011bt, co d\u011blat, nejlep\u0161\u00edm zdrojem je pro v\u00e1s <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/stayinghome.club\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">Staying Home Club<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"kz la lb lc ld le\">\n<div class=\"lf n ap\">\n<div class=\"lg n cd p lh li\">\n<h2 class=\"bh gm lj bj dv lk dx dy ll ea cq\">Who&#8217;s staying home because of COVID-19?<\/h2>\n<div class=\"lm r\">\n<h3 class=\"bh dt du bj dv lk dx dy ll ea bm\">A list of all the companies WFH or events changed because of covid-19<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ln r\">\n<h4 class=\"bh dt er bj dv lk dx dy ll ea bm\">stayinghome.club<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"824e\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jde o seznam z\u00e1sad soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstupu, kter\u00e9 zavedly americk\u00e9 technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti \u2014 zat\u00edm jich je 138.<\/p>\n<p id=\"c6f8\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pohybuj\u00ed se od tolerantn\u00edch po na\u0159izuj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u00e1ci z domova; tak\u00e9 omezuj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy, cestov\u00e1n\u00ed a ud\u00e1losti.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3a98\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Firmy si mus\u00ed rozhodnout mnoh\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed v\u011bci, nap\u0159\u00edklad jak nalo\u017eit se zam\u011bstnanci placen\u00fdmi podle hodin a jestli ponechat kancel\u00e1\u0159e otev\u0159en\u00e9 nebo ne, jak prov\u00e1d\u011bt pohovory a co s bufety\u2026 Pokud chcete v\u011bd\u011bt, jak moje firma vy\u0159e\u0161ila n\u011bkter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto probl\u00e9m\u016f, m\u016f\u017eete si p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst popis na\u0161eho postupu (spolu s modelov\u00fdm ozn\u00e1men\u00edm pro va\u0161e zam\u011bstnance).<\/p>\n<h1 id=\"0792\" class=\"gk gl cq bi bh gm cs gn cu go gp gq gr gs gt gu gv\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">4. Kdy?<\/h1>\n<p id=\"3568\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Mo\u017en\u00e1 jste se mnou souhlasili od \u00fapln\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku a jen v\u00e1s zaj\u00edmalo, kdy prov\u00e9st jak\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, jak\u00e9 spou\u0161t\u011b\u010de jsou pro jak\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"2ae5\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Model spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d\u016f zalo\u017een\u00fd na riziku<\/h2>\n<p id=\"6cce\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Abych to vy\u0159e\u0161il, vytvo\u0159il jsem tento <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/17YyCmjb2Z2QwMiRRwAb7W0vQoEAiL9Co0ARsl03dSlw\/htmlview?usp=sharing&amp;sle=true\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">model<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"kz la lb lc ld le\">\n<div class=\"lf n ap\">\n<div class=\"lg n cd p lh li\">\n<h2 class=\"bh gm lj bj dv lk dx dy ll ea cq\">Coronavirus &#8211; When Should You Close Your Office? &#8211; Google Drive<\/h2>\n<div class=\"lm r\">\n<h3 class=\"bh dt du bj dv lk dx dy ll ea bm\">Edit description<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ln r\">\n<h4 class=\"bh dt er bj dv lk dx dy ll ea bm\">docs.google.com<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"fe98\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Umo\u017e\u0148uje v\u00e1m vyhodnotit p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f ve va\u0161\u00ed oblasti, pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00fd z va\u0161ich zam\u011bstnanc\u016f je ji\u017e infikov\u00e1n, jak se to bude vyv\u00edjet a jak z toho v\u0161eho vyvodit, jestli byste m\u011bli zav\u0159\u00edt.<\/p>\n<p id=\"9a84\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b v\u00e1m model m\u016f\u017ee \u0159\u00edct:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"\">\n<li id=\"6424\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud m\u00e1 va\u0161e spole\u010dnost 100 zam\u011bstnanc\u016f ve st\u00e1tu Washington, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 ji\u017e 11 \u00famrt\u00ed kv\u016fli koronaviru, je 25% \u0161ance, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00fd z va\u0161ich zam\u011bstnanc\u016f je naka\u017een\u00fd, a tud\u00ed\u017e byste m\u011bli okam\u017eit\u011b zav\u0159\u00edt.<\/li>\n<li id=\"3fb2\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud m\u00e1 va\u0161e spole\u010dnost 250 zam\u011bstnanc\u016f p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti z\u00e1toky San Francisca, kde je dohromady jen 22 potvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, tedy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 54 prav\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, ji\u017e 9. 3. budete m\u00edt asi 2% \u0161anci, \u017ee jeden z va\u0161ich zam\u011bstnanc\u016f je naka\u017een\u00fd.<\/li>\n<li id=\"ca2a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj gf fl gg fn gh fp gi fr gj ft gc gd ge\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><em class=\"fu\">[Aktualizov\u00e1n\u00ed 12. 3.]<\/em> A pokud je va\u0161e firma v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei a m\u00e1 250 zam\u011bstnanc\u016f, m\u00e1te <strong class=\"fi jb\">95% pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee jeden z va\u0161ich zam\u011bstnanc\u016f m\u00e1 koronavirus<\/strong>, a m\u011bli byste do z\u00edt\u0159ka zav\u0159\u00edt kancel\u00e1\u0159e.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p id=\"960d\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tento model pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pojmy jako \u201cfirma\u201d a \u201czam\u011bstnanec\u201d, ale m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pou\u017eit\u00fd stejn\u00fd zp\u016fsobem tak\u00e9 pro cokoliv jin\u00e9ho: \u0161koly, hromadnou dopravu\u2026 Tak\u017ee pokud m\u00e1te v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei jen 50 zam\u011bstnanc\u016f a v\u0161ichni pojedou do pr\u00e1ce metrem, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e naraz\u00ed asi na tis\u00edc dal\u0161\u00edch lid\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee jeden z nich se nakaz\u00ed, je mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed a m\u011bli byste zav\u0159\u00edt hned.<\/p>\n<p id=\"731a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Pokud st\u00e1le v\u00e1h\u00e1te, proto\u017ee nikdo neprojevuje p\u0159\u00edznaky, uv\u011bdomte si, \u017ee k<a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/cmmid.github.io\/topics\/covid19\/control-measures\/pre-symptomatic-transmission.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\"> 26 % p\u0159enos\u016f infekc\u00ed dojde je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed prvn\u00edm symptomy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"833a\" class=\"gw gl cq bi bh gm gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Jste sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed skupiny v\u016fd\u010d\u00edch osobnost?<\/h2>\n<p id=\"00ed\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Tahle matematika je sebest\u0159edn\u00e1. Kouk\u00e1 se na riziko ka\u017ed\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165, kter\u00e1 z\u016fstane beztak otev\u0159en\u00e1 co nejd\u00e9le bude moct, dokud ji kladivo koronaviru stejn\u011b nemilosrdn\u011b nezav\u0159e.<\/p>\n<p id=\"b9a1\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ale kdy\u017e jste sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed skupiny firemn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f nebo politik\u016f, nevztahuj\u00ed se va\u0161e v\u00fdpo\u010dty pouze na jednu firmu, ale na v\u0161echny. Z kalkulac\u00ed se st\u00e1v\u00e1: Jak\u00e1 je pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se jedna z na\u0161ich spole\u010dnost\u00ed nakaz\u00ed? Pokud jste sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed skupiny 50 firem v okol\u00ed San Francisca, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b 250 zam\u011bstnanc\u016f, je 35% \u0161ance, \u017ee alespo\u0148 jedna z firem m\u00e1 naka\u017een\u00e9ho zam\u011bstnance; 97% pokud se na situaci pod\u00edv\u00e1me p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden. P\u0159idal jsem na to z\u00e1lo\u017eku v <a class=\"ar ev fy fz ga gb\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/17YyCmjb2Z2QwMiRRwAb7W0vQoEAiL9Co0ARsl03dSlw\/htmlview?usp=sharing&amp;sle=true\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">modelu<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h1 id=\"ec43\" class=\"gk gl cq bi bh gm cs gn cu go gp gq gr gs gt gu gv\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Z\u00e1v\u011bry: Cena \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h1>\n<p id=\"8704\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">M\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt d\u011bsiv\u00e9 ud\u011blat hned te\u010f velk\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed, ale takto byste o tom nem\u011bli p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"ik r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*Smm7dV1ULFALQap4.png\" alt=\"Graf 22: Model nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru denn\u011b s opat\u0159en\u00edm soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstup zaveden\u00e9ho jeden den od sebe\" width=\"723\" height=\"434\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 22: Model nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru denn\u011b s opat\u0159en\u00edm soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstup zaveden\u00e9ho jeden den od sebe<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"09f5\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Toto je teoretick\u00fd model ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 skupiny: jedna v\u016fbec nerespektuje opat\u0159en\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstupu, druh\u00e1 je zavede v den n ode dne vypuknut\u00ed a t\u0159et\u00ed je zavede den n + 1. V\u0161echna \u010d\u00edsla jsou vymy\u0161len\u00e1, ale vybral jsem je, aby pasovala na to, co se stalo v Hubei, kde bylo v nejhor\u0161\u00edm okam\u017eiku 6 tis\u00edc nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f denn\u011b. Jsou tu jen proto, aby ilustrovaly, jak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jeden den v n\u011b\u010dem, co roste exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b. M\u016f\u017eete vid\u011bt, \u017ee skupina s jednodenn\u00edm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm m\u00e1 vrchol pozd\u011bji a v\u00fd\u0161e, ob\u011b skupiny se soci\u00e1ln\u00edm odstupem v\u0161ak nakonec konverguj\u00ed k nule nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fb2f\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Ale co kumulativn\u00ed grafy?<\/p>\n<figure class=\"hj hk hl hm hn ho bz ca paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"hp hq hr hs ai\">\n<div class=\"bz ca hi\">\n<div class=\"hy r hr hz\">\n<div class=\"lo r\">\n<div class=\"ou vl s t u hv ai dv hw hx\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/max\/750\/0*IZUfxJz7FWDWXggP.png\" alt=\"Graf 23: Kumulativn\u00ed model p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru s opat\u0159en\u00edm soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstup zaveden\u00e9ho jeden den od sebe\" width=\"733\" height=\"443\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"bm du if ig ih cb bz ca ii ij bh dt\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Graf 23: Kumulativn\u00ed model p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru s opat\u0159en\u00edm soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstup zaveden\u00e9ho jeden den od sebe<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"5251\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">V tomto teoretick\u00e9m modelu, kter\u00fd voln\u011b p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 Hubei, vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed jeden den o 40 % v\u00edce p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. Tak\u017ee mo\u017en\u00e1, kdyby \u00fa\u0159ady provincie Hubei na\u0159\u00eddily uzav\u0159en\u00ed 22. 1. a ne 23. 1., mohly by sn\u00ed\u017eit po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f o ohromn\u00fdch 20 tis\u00edc.<\/p>\n<p id=\"896a\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">A pamatujme, to jsou jen naka\u017een\u00ed. Smrtnost by byla mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, nejen proto, \u017ee by bylo p\u0159\u00edmo o 40 % v\u00edce \u00famrt\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 by do\u0161lo k je\u0161t\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu kolapsu zdravotn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, co\u017e by vedlo k smrtnosti a\u017e o 10 % v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e co jsme vid\u011bli p\u0159edt\u00edm. Tak\u017ee jednodenn\u00ed rozd\u00edl v opat\u0159en\u00edch soci\u00e1ln\u00edho odstup m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st a\u017e k 10n\u00e1sobku p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f koronaviru ve va\u0161\u00ed komunit\u011b a mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed smrtnosti.<\/p>\n<p id=\"10af\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Toto je exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozba. Ka\u017ed\u00fd den se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1. Pokud odkl\u00e1d\u00e1te rozhodnut\u00ed o jeden den, nep\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1te t\u00edm pouze k n\u011bkolika dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u016fm. Nejsp\u00ed\u0161 jsou ve va\u0161em okol\u00ed u\u017e stovky nebo tis\u00edce p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. Ka\u017ed\u00fd den, kdy nen\u00ed zaveden soci\u00e1ln\u00ed odstup, roste mno\u017estv\u00ed t\u011bchto p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b.<\/p>\n<h1 id=\"80b1\" class=\"gk gl cq bi bh gm cs gn cu go gp gq gr gs gt gu gv\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">\u0160i\u0159te pov\u011bdom\u00ed<\/h1>\n<p id=\"add4\" class=\"fg fh cq bi fi b fj jd fl je fn jf fp jg fr jh ft ci\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Toto je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ten jedin\u00fd \u010das v posledn\u00ed dek\u00e1d\u011b, kdy sd\u00edlen\u00ed (a p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed, pozn. p\u0159ekladatel\u016f :-P) \u010dl\u00e1nku m\u016f\u017ee re\u00e1ln\u011b zachra\u0148ovat \u017eivoty. Lid\u00e9 mus\u00ed tohle ch\u00e1pat, aby odvr\u00e1tili tuto katastrofu. Mus\u00edme jednat hned.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"ou ch lp lq ai lx lv ly\" data-test-id=\"post-sidebar\">\n<div class=\"n p\">\n<div class=\"z ab ac ae af ag ah ai\">\n<div class=\"lz n cd\">\n<div class=\"vm\">\n<div class=\"ma mb mc n\">\n<div class=\"n o\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"nz oa r hr\">\n<div class=\"r s od oe\"><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@krivka.adam?source=follow_footer--------------------------follow_footer-\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"r dn of og\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/fit\/c\/160\/160\/0*ewyKG4xMiysIkHIS\" alt=\"Adam K\u0159ivka\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"oh r oi\">\n<p class=\"bh dt er bj bm oj ok\">Written by<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"oh ol n oi\">\n<div class=\"ai n o dj\">\n<h2 class=\"bh gm om on cq\"><a class=\"ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@krivka.adam?source=follow_footer--------------------------follow_footer-\" rel=\"noopener\">Adam K\u0159ivka<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>p\u0159evzato zde: https:\/\/medium.com\/@krivka.adam\/koronavirus-pro%C4%8D-mus%C3%ADme-jednat-hned-6136d561d955 vy\u0161lo: 2020-03-12 Koronavirus: Pro\u010d mus\u00edme jednat hned Adam K\u0159ivka Politici, \u0161\u00e9fov\u00e9, \u0159editel\u00e9 a vedouc\u00ed: Co m\u00e1te d\u011blat a kdy? P\u016fvodn\u00ed autor: Tomas Pueyo, odkaz na origin\u00e1l v angli\u010dtin\u011b P\u0159elo\u017eil: Adam K\u0159ivka, V\u00edt \u010cern\u00fd, Ond\u0159ej Zabloudil Pechn\u00edk Chyby nebo korekce pos\u00edlejte na: adam.krivka@skaut.cz. Korektury prob\u00edhaj\u00ed. Aktualizov\u00e1no 12. 3. 2020 Se v\u0161\u00edm, co se d\u011bje kolem koronaviru, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,15,2,83,7,82,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bezpecnost","category-cr","category-eu","category-koronavirus","category-svet","category-zdravi","category-zdravotnictvi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=702"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/702\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":708,"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/702\/revisions\/708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spdpraha.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}